WHAT DOES A GLOBAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURE RISE OF 1.5 AND 2 DEGREE MEAN FOR THE NILE BASIN? CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTIONS: UGANDA

This bulletin presents an analysis of historical and projected temperature and rainfall changes in Uganda at 1.5 and 2.0 degrees global warming. Using data from the CMIP5 multi-model archive, the study:
  1. Determined the historical spatial trend of the rainfall and temperature.
  2. Determined the timing of global mean warming of 1.5 and 2.0 degrees over pre-industrial temperatures;
  3. Rank the models from the wettest to driest, and from the coldest to hottest for each country to illustrate which one is wet and which is dry.
  4. Calculated changes in mean annual spatial temperature and precipitation changes at these times over Uganda.

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