Scenario Construction: The Future of Nile Cooperation Ten Years from Now

Nile Cooperation- 2024:  This paper examined the number of uncertainties the Nile cooperation is subjected to that are likely to influence its direction in the coming 10 years. Uncertainties explored included the political commitment to cooperation, continued funding from international community to the Nile cooperation, coordinated or unilateral basin infrastructure development, when NBI will become the permanent river commission among others. This was done in a 5-day planning workshop that brought together 25 people from the basin including Nile TAC members, NBI Staff (former and current), NBD, Politicians, Diplomats, parliamentarians, and Development Partners. The highly interactive workshop followed a well-established scenario planning process used worldwide; with an experienced external facilitator and featured a high level of agreement about the results. Two key parameters influencing the future of the basin were identified; namely (i)INTEGRATION (Regional political cooperation and economic integration, Political stability, Policy harmonization) and GOODWILL (Inclusive cooperation, agreed upon legal framework, visionary leadership in the Nile basin, political will of high-level decision makers, honoring obligations to maintain basin in practice and Data and information sharing) and (ii) Funding

Based on the two parameters, four plausible scenarios were agreed upon; key insights drawn from the scenario planning exercise that NBI has taken forward in its planning were

·  Improving NBI  coordination and collaboration with the regional economic blocks and other regional initiatives 

·  NBI to ensure coordinated basin wide development, as the basin wide perspective is NBI ‘s added value

·  Intensify fundraising from both the countries and international community as availability of Funding is a king pin for a strong NBI;


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